"A Task to Make Plans." What's Behind the Warning of Russia's Provocations in the Baltics
There have been several recent reports in Western media pointing to a new and immediate threat of Russian escalation in the Baltic states or Poland. First, Fox News cited Latvian intelligence warnings of potential Russian provocations, including the use of drones or even missiles.
This was followed by reports in The Guardian and The Telegraph. The former detailed potential military provocations in the region, while the latter outlined the possibility of targeted missile or drone attacks on critical infrastructure, as well as Russian "soldiers potentially crossing the border from Kaliningrad or Belarus” into Poland.
So, what is actually happening?
I reached out to a wide range of sources across governments, intelligence services, and diplomatic circles in the region to learn more. Because of the highly sensitive nature of the topic, all sources spoke strictly on the condition of anonymity. However, the vast majority of the information and assessments presented below was corroborated by at least two independent sources.
“The rumors that Russia is planning a military provocation against the Baltic states began in the spring,” an intelligence source said.
This was confirmed by an Estonian security policy official, who noted that since May, information has circulated within security and intelligence circles regarding an alleged meeting in Russia. At this meeting, the directive was reportedly given to draft plans for potential provocations.
According to the source, the Baltic states, Poland, occasionally Finland, and even Moldova, with which Russia shares no land border, were flagged as potential targets.
“I have not received any information that a political decision has been made to actually carry out a provocation,” the source said. This sentiment was echoed by a Baltic intelligence source: “Today, there is no known date, no concrete plan, and no designated organizer for such a provocation.”
According to three separate sources, any such actions would purposefully fall below the threshold of NATO’s Article 5 collective defense principle.
"There are no indications of a looming military provocation. We see no changes in Russian military presence or preparations [aimed at the Baltics]. If we did, we would instantly engage both nationally and at the NATO level to signal Russia [to stop]," said a Latvian foreign and security policy official who was not authorized to speak on the record.
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"What we are talking about is a hybrid, subconventional escalation," the official added. "Russia is continuously testing and provoking us with sabotage. Migration pressure on the border is growing every day. There are cyberattacks, hostile information campaigns, and lawfare."
All of the sources I spoke to emphasized that there are currently no indications that an actual decision to escalate in the Baltics, Poland, or elsewhere in Europe has been made in Moscow. This makes it difficult to assess exactly what form a provocation might take.
"Russia’s capabilities are limited. But they still need to be monitored carefully," one official noted.
Nevertheless, the most frequently discussed scenarios include drone incidents —including false-flag drone operations — and increasingly aggressive acts of sabotage. Last fall, a group of unmarked, armed men appeared on a roadside in the so-called Saatse Boot, a wedge of Russian territory that loops across an Estonian road, allowing Estonians to drive through as long as they don't stop. A few months later, three Russian border guards briefly entered an Estonian stretch of land in Vasknarva. These are the types of incidents that could begin to occur more frequently, one source observed.
In essence, there is nothing fundamentally new about Russia planning operations against the Baltic states or the West, or instructing its intelligence services to draft provocation scenarios.
“Russia is constantly planning hostile and subversive activities directed at Estonia,” several sources stated. This includes routine brainstorming at the “grassroots level” by intelligence officers pitching ideas to higher ranks.
If every operation developed against Estonia over the years were published, “it would become your most-read story,” one source remarked. “Yet, for one reason or another, the vast majority of these ideas have never been implemented.”
“It’s not that there is an emergency situation or that we are particularly nervous,” one official said. Another intelligence official echoed the sentiment: “To our knowledge, there is nothing extraordinary.” A third added: “There have been various indicators before and after, but at the moment, there is no information suggesting anything is about to happen immediately.”
One security official assessed that these rumors are part of a deliberate strategic narrative managed by Moscow to generate fear in the West, thereby undermining support for Ukraine. This comes against the backdrop of Russia’s poor military performance, Ukraine’s successful drone strikes deep inside Russian territory, a domestic fuel crisis, and a struggling Russian economy.
“The general assessment of Western intelligence services is that practically everyone in Russia understands that the situation is bad—except for one person,” the official said. “People in the business sector certainly understand this, but increasingly so do the FSB and the military as well.”
The logic of Russia’s narrative is that since their situation is currently difficult, they must somehow escalate the situation. In addition to provocations against the Baltic states and Europe, they are also spreading sentences about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
"I am not convinced that this logic holds up. My experience shows that Russia behaves more aggressively when it feels confident," a security official with long-term experience concluded. "Conversely, when they feel weak, they put their tail between their legs and act more politely. But you can never entirely rule out that this is more than a bluff."
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Holger