The Myth of Russia’s Omnipotence

Hi and greetings from a snowy Tallinn!

I am absolutely awed by the warm welcome The Baltic Flank received last week. In just a few days, this community grew from literally zero to more than 900 subscribers, and the interview with Ambassador Vosman has already been read by well over 12,000 people!

Thank you to each and every one of you. Please keep spreading the word!

The Cable Mystery: A Reality Check

One of the newsworthy quotes from the interview with Andres Vosman was his take on the severed undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. Let’s revisit that for a second:

“My strong assessment is that predominantly the Baltic Sea incidents of recent years have been caused by a coincidence of circumstances - significantly larger shipping traffic in the Russian direction, vessels in poor condition and crews with low professionalism, more underwater infrastructure than before, greater public attention.”

Few Western intelligence agencies or officials have been so direct in their assessments.

But last week, we saw backing for that view from an unexpected quarter. As the cargo ship Fitburg—suspected of cutting data cables between Estonia and Finland on New Year’s Eve—was allowed to leave a Finnish port, our northern neighbor’s internal security service, Supo, issued a rare on-the-record statement that largely echoes Vosman.

While stressing that their comments were general and not a reference to any specific incident, the agency told the Finnish public broadcaster YLE that “there is no indication at the European level that Russia has trained proxy actors for tasks in maritime areas”.

Like Vosman, Supo assessed that damage to underwater infrastructure is not rare—globally or in the Baltic Sea—but that it “just hasn’t been talked about much before.” They pointed to the increasing density of cables, the pattern of incidents occurring during autumn and winter storms, and the fact that the Baltic Sea is critical to Russia’s own economy, giving them an incentive to keep the routes open.

According to Supo, various events that have nothing to do with Russia are being unjustifiably interpreted by the public as Russian sabotage.

“This kind of discussion is beneficial to Russia, as it reinforces the image of Russia’s omnipotence,” the agency told YLE.

Got a hint? Find me on Signal at holgerroonemaa.30.

The Giant with Clay Feet

This feeds directly into the second part of today’s dispatch: the image of Russia’s omnipotence.

Back in the autumn, my team and I published a series of articles where we dove into the fear of war in Estonian society. As we picked up signals about this spreading anxiety, we wanted to look deeper. How does it affect the everyday lives of families and couples? What about the economy? And is the fear justified, or is it exaggerated?

I don’t think I have ever received more feedback on a series than I did for this one. Readers sent emails and WhatsApp messages explaining, sometimes in intimate detail, exactly how they feel.

Why am I telling you this now? Two reasons.

First, for those of you interested in “longreads,” I have temporarily removed the paywalls on the most important stories in that series to submit them for a journalism award. It’s a limited-time chance to read them before I have to reinstate the paywall in a few weeks! (Links are at the bottom).

Second, as part of that series, we needed to establish the actual threat level. We spoke with more than 20 top-level defense, security, and intelligence officials, including the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo.

Even though it feels like a lot has changed in the months since, the strategic reality hasn’t. To be sure, I went back to General Merilo this week to ask him directly: What has changed?

Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo. Photo: Ilmar Saabas / Delfi Meedia

Here are some of his insights on the timeline, the threat, and the myth of the invincible Russian bear.

On Russia’s “Omnipotence” General Merilo notes that in the public imagination, Russia tends to be a “six-meter-tall, immortal, and invincible giant.” Yet quite clearly, this giant has failed to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

“Now he is tied to the Ukraine war, having suffered colossal losses in people, equipment, and the economy. If anyone thinks that he is still invincible and no one else can stand against him, then that is false.”

On the Real Threat to NATO

“If Russia attacks us, it attacks NATO. It will lose. It will lose this war with NATO. Simply, the beginning of this war may be too ugly for us [Estonia], which means we will suffer losses while bringing the adversary to a halt... But if Russia makes this miscalculation against NATO, then it will lose.”

“Today’s picture, at least regarding land forces, is relatively positive. Russian units are not lined up behind the Estonian border in the land, air, or maritime domains. The picture is not such that war will break out tomorrow morning.”

On Putin’s “Immortality” Complex

“We must understand specifically what motivates Putin. If he is motivated only by achieving the status of immortality after his death... then he cannot stop at the point where he is today. This is, unfortunately, a harsh reality... Weakness provokes – this has long been known and Estonians have constantly encountered this over generations.”

How Much Time Do We Have? When I asked about the timeline, Merilo was blunt:

“That is a good question which actually doesn’t need answering. We must look at the situation, not look at where the time is... It is more important for us to notice the signs if the situation gets worse, and make the final preparations in time.”

“I come back to my hypothesis that Putin needs to achieve immortality. Looking at his age, Putin will not live forever. This, too, dictates that he may commit the next stupidity to satisfy his ambitions in the near future... [But] purely technically, for Russia to go into conflict with NATO, it still needs to redeploy forces. Therefore, it cannot happen in just a few days.”

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The “Great Patriotic” Reality Check

Finally, a bit of historical perspective to ground us.

Last week marked a grim milestone. Russia has now been waging its full-scale war against Ukraine for exactly as long as the Soviet Union fought in the Great Patriotic War (WWII).

The contrast in results is staggering. Back then, the Red Army was a steamroller, advancing tens of kilometers every single day. Today? It took the modern Russian army over two years just to grind its way from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar—a distance of only 11 kilometers. Over the last thousand days, Russia didn’t capture more than one percent of Ukraine’s territory. In fact, Russia controls less of Ukraine today than it did in 2022.

The giant is dangerous, yes. But he is not omnipotent.

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As recent weeks have demonstrated, Putin isn’t the only one obsessed with his place in history. The deepening rift between the US and Europe is precisely the kind of signal that could lead the Kremlin to a dangerous conclusion: that NATO’s Article 5 is a relic of the past. This is exactly the miscalculation General Merilo today and Andres Vosman last week warned about. We are watching this fracture closely and will hopefully bring you original reporting on it soon.

That’s it for this time!

If you want to read our “Fear of War” series in detail, check the link here. The full interview with General Merilo can be read here and the long-story about the actual threat of war, here. Google Translate usually does a great job with Estonian. I will reinstate the paywalls in early February, so take a look while you can.

Thank you for bearing with me, and please don’t hesitate to send me your feedback! If you appreciate what you read, please share it!

Until next time, Holger